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<channel>
	<title>FreedomLab Future Studies</title>
	<link>http://www.freedomlab.org</link>
	<description>Empowered by creativity</description>
	<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2009 16:15:05 +0000</pubDate>
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	<language>en</language>
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		<title>Google Truly Committed to Openness</title>
		<link>http://www.freedomlab.org/2009/01/05/google-truly-committed-to-openness/</link>
		<comments>http://www.freedomlab.org/2009/01/05/google-truly-committed-to-openness/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jurg@freedomlab.org</dc:creator>
		
	<dc:subject>Wzzup</dc:subject><dc:subject>camera</dc:subject><dc:subject>closed</dc:subject><dc:subject>google</dc:subject><dc:subject>media</dc:subject><dc:subject>mobile</dc:subject><dc:subject>offering</dc:subject><dc:subject>phone</dc:subject><dc:subject>platform</dc:subject><dc:subject>player</dc:subject>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://santiago.freedomlab.org/2009/01/05/google-committed-to-openness/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/large2.jpg" class="template_image" rel="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/large2.jpg"><img src="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/large2.thumbnail.jpg" id="image24677" class="yui-img" title="T-Mobile G1 (HTC Dream)" align="left" /></a><a href="http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/08/20/my-openmoko/">OpenMoko</a> and <a href="http://www.freedomlab.org/2007/11/06/google-leading-a-revolution-or-just-lighting-the-fuse/">Google Android</a> are the two most promising mobile projects. But almost everyone I try to convince of my passion is not impressed. They are much more interested in the <a href="http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/03/11/iphone-breakthrough-revolution-for-mobile-industry/">iPhone</a>. But the iPhone is not going to bring us anything remotely interesting. It will just bring us a better version of something we already have: phone, camera, media player, etc. And above all the iPhone platform is unbelievably closed. The only 'thing' that is going to bring us something significantly different is openness. And that is exaclty what Google is committed to. Apart from Android and its platform it recently started offering a completely freed <a href="http://code.google.com/android/dev-devices.html">developers version</a> of the G1. Android is not yet ready for the OpenMoko (I have a Freerunner,) so I am trying to justify (to myself) why I need this...]]></description>
					<content:encoded><![CDATA[Just tell me why I need to have this...]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>Fixing the broken windows of Lagos</title>
		<link>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/17/fixing-the-broken-windows-of-lagos/</link>
		<comments>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/17/fixing-the-broken-windows-of-lagos/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>joachim@freedomlab.org</dc:creator>
		
	<dc:subject>Wzzup</dc:subject><dc:subject>change</dc:subject><dc:subject>city</dc:subject><dc:subject>information</dc:subject><dc:subject>living</dc:subject><dc:subject>people</dc:subject><dc:subject>road</dc:subject><dc:subject>service</dc:subject><dc:subject>social</dc:subject><dc:subject>space</dc:subject><dc:subject>world</dc:subject>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://santiago.freedomlab.org/2008/12/12/fixing-the-broken-windows-of-lagos/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/lagos.jpg" class="template_image" title="Lagos now knows garbage collection" rel="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/lagos.jpg"><img src="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/lagos.jpg" id="image24154" alt="Lagos now knows garbage collection" align="left" height="96" width="128" /></a>With our Africa Online! report we signalled opportunities to be met in this 'forgotten continent'. The basic argument in the report is "No aid but trade" and I would like to quote Ecobanks chief executive Arnold Ekpe in the NewAfrican (no.479) for a new slogan: "We do not have a strategy for Africa. Africa <em>is</em> our strategy." This idea of taking advantage of the possibilities in Africa includes the necessity for autonomy of African people and their actions, something we could see as a waypoint on the road to a online Africa. Here is how Lagos, Nigeria's commercial capital, is fixing its broken windows in its race towards international succes.]]></description>
					<content:encoded><![CDATA[Lagos is expected to become the third largest city in the world, with 25 million people in 2025. The potential of this city would be considered enormous under normal circumstances and expectations high, but the image of Lagos is slightly different. If not on the entire planet, at least it is thought to be the worst place on the African continent. Its slums and general pollution of the public space leave nothing but the impression of a nightmare you will find various sources of information tell you if you'd ask and as far as business opportunities go...you better find a different city and save yourself a horrible time.

But some think differently. In an interview with the NewAfrican current governor of Lagos State, Babatunde Fashola, explains his plans to transform Lagos into world-class city. Enthoustiastically he tells about projects of city planning that are inspired by the Dubai example, projects of infrastructure that aim to give a boost to the cities economy, attracting investors that are truly searching for commercial opportunitie, thus creating a healthy business environment and so on. Aparantly typical for this man is his management style of leadership, with which he tends to relocate the perspective from the political field to the business field. All this sounds very promising, but why I specifically think his strategy has big potential is because he is fixing broken windows.

What does that mean "fixing broken windows"? The theory of broken windows generally states that streets with a broken window that is not being fixed will attract and provoke criminal behaviour. On the contrary, if the window is being fixed that is a clear sign of a valuable public space and morality to people, who will then refrain from criminal behaviour. The theory has been subject to discussion, but recently scientist in Groningen have proven the theory to be correct, as <a href="http://www.nrc.nl/wetenschap/article2072705.ece/Graffiti_op_de_muur_brengt_straatroof_dichterbij" target="_blank">this article</a> will tell you. Great elaboration about the theory and its social effects can be found in <a href="http://www.gladwell.com/tippingpoint/index.html" target="_blank">Malcom Gladwell's Tipping Point</a>, which also tells the great effects its application had in New York when crime was fought by cleaning up the subway.

This is also a strategy that Fashola is following in Lagos, although I don't know if he has actually heard of the theory and the Groningen scientists. Lagos was notorious for its filthy streets, packed with garbage and lacking any form of green. But this is changing and will be an image of the memory if it is up to Fashola. Regulation and service are developed to improve the living standards in the city. Apparently trees were not safe before, so now there is a law against felling a tree, and this is designed in alignment with a plan to plant one million trees in three years. In the meanwhile teams are out on the streets to clean them and keep them clean. Fashola admits that he can't change the cities image and polluting culture overnight, but a shift in perspective is already recognized and I am wondering when this new paradigm will reach the critical mass of the tipping point.

I think it is a good possibility that, maybe along with general development on the African continent, Lagos will reach this tipping point somewhere in the coming years or decades and if it does it will unleash a great commercial potential. 25 million people living in a city on the shore of a continent that is developing and will maybe become the new factory to the world, if it succeeds in diversifying its industry and if the current factory place is becoming to expensive...it sounds promising to me.]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness</title>
		<link>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/16/nudge-improving-decisions-about-health-wealth-and-happiness/</link>
		<comments>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/16/nudge-improving-decisions-about-health-wealth-and-happiness/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rob@freedomlab.org</dc:creator>
		
	<dc:subject>Book of the week</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject>Not on home</dc:subject><dc:subject>age</dc:subject><dc:subject>consumer</dc:subject><dc:subject>human</dc:subject><dc:subject>information</dc:subject><dc:subject>life</dc:subject><dc:subject>people</dc:subject><dc:subject>personal</dc:subject><dc:subject>power</dc:subject><dc:subject>story</dc:subject><dc:subject>world</dc:subject>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://santiago.freedomlab.org/2008/12/16/nudge-improving-decisions-about-health-wealth-and-happiness/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/41o-rTzuelL.jpg" class="template_image" rel="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/41o-rTzuelL.jpg"><img src="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/41o-rTzuelL.thumbnail.jpg" id="image24159" class="book_image" title="Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness" align="left" /></a><small>Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
by Richard H. Thaler</small>
<small>52 customers reviewed this article averaging 4.0</small>
<small>
<strong>Isbn-13:</strong> 9780300122237 </small>

Every day, we make decisions on topics ranging from personal investments to schools for our children to the meals we eat to the causes we champion. Unfortunately, we often choose poorly. The reason, the authors explain, is that, being human, we all are susceptible to various biases that can lead us to blunder. Our mistakes make us poorer and less healthy; we often make bad decisions involving education, personal finance, health care, mortgages and credit cards, the family, and even the planet itself. Thaler...]]></description>
					<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Nudge-Improving-Decisions-Health-Happiness/dp/0300122233%3FSubscriptionId%3D0BN9NFMF20HGM4ND8RG2%26tag%3Droblog-21%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D0300122233" target="_blank">See this book in Amazon</a>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">Every day, we make decisions on topics ranging from personal investments to schools for our children to the meals we eat to the causes we champion. Unfortunately, we often choose poorly. The reason, the authors explain, is that, being human, we all are susceptible to various biases that can lead us to blunder. Our mistakes make us poorer and less healthy; we often make bad decisions involving education, personal finance, health care, mortgages and credit cards, the family, and even the planet itself.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">�</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">Thaler and Sunstein invite us to enter an alternative world, one that takes our humanness as a given. They show that by knowing how people think, we can design choice environments that make it easier for people to choose what is best for themselves, their families, and their society. Using colorful examples from the most important aspects of life, Thaler and Sunstein demonstrate how thoughtful “choice architecture” can be established to nudge us in beneficial directions without restricting freedom of choice. <em>Nudge</em> offers a unique new take—from neither the left nor the right—on many hot-button issues, for individuals and governments alike. This is one of the most engaging and provocative books to come along in many years.</p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">�</p>
(20080518)
<h3>Customer Reviews</h3>
<h4>engaging and thought-provoking:</h4>
Everyone seems to be talking about this book, and the Tories like it a lot (which may not necessarily be a good sign). The book shows how people often behave in irrational ways and offers some gentle 'nudging' techniques for making them behave more responsibly and sensibly. There are some very entertaining illustrations and examples - I love the story about the urinals at the airport (but I won't go into any more detail here or else I'll spoil it for you.) Sometimes, however, the strategies seem to be a little less subtle than the authors suggest - for example, the idea that there should be a waiting period before people get married. Surely that's a little too much interference? Nevertheless, the book is an excellent and stimulating - and optimistic - read. I recommend it along with Stop the Age Clock: Look 20 Years Younger, 20 Pounds Lighter and 200% Prettier in Only 20 Days
<h4>What causes the perception that credit cards are necessary financial device:</h4>
Introduction: In 2004, there were 1.4 billion credit cards. By 2007, the average American family had an average credit card debt of $12,000 and paid the typical 18 percent per year.  Credit card payments are decreasing causes increased losses by banks.

Citigroup, in 2008, credit card losses eclipsed losses in the 1990s and is expected to rise in 2009. The weak economy has pushed more borrowers over the edge and affecting a wider range of borrower types.

1. Credit cards provide a convenience allowing to user to be cashless and still have buying power.

2. Businesses, such as, hotels and restaurants cater to credit card usage.

3. Credit cards provide a ready source of liquidity

4. Debit cards often offer a line of credit

5. Credit card usage is compulsive and addictive and has a huge nudge factor and tension. The constraints to usage don't exist and the temptative tension to use the credit card is compulsive and pressure oriented.

6. Excessive Credit cards usage and accumulative debt demonstrates lack of self-control

7. Credit cards provide instant gratification bypassing the discipline of saving for a duration, accumulating, and purchasing with cash.

8. People don't like to be told not to use their credit cards. They rebel at the censorship of their excessive usage and feel credit card usage is a right.

9. Credit card companies should be required to a electronic copy to the consumer showing all the precise usage and fee payments, so customers get a better sense of what they are paying for.

10. Credit card companies establish rules that help them raise fees. One way credit card companies capitalize on fee is by shortening the day you ahve between the time you get your bill and the day your payment is due. One day late means 30 days late, you pay the penalty and the interest; one day can result in a 100 dollar fee.

11. Credit card debt is unsecure debt. Default rates are expected to increase during receding economies.

12. Credit cards have hidden fees.

13. Interest paid on credit cards is not tax deductible.

14. Credit card companies require the consumer to pay the minimal payment and extend payment for decades without moral remorse.

15. People are more afraid to abandon their credit cards than to use cash.

16. Credit card companies should allow the automatic payment of the full bill.
<h4>Emphasizing the importance of defaults and choices:</h4>
Nudge provides a solid, easy-to-read background for the emerging space of behavioral economics.  The upfront sections provide the context of fundamental human biases that provide power to those that help to form the decision choices each of us have.  For me, the most critical insight of this book is the emphasis placed on how responsible any of us are for setting the default options in the choices we pose - whether to our children, our spouses, our colleagues, our team members or our organizations.  Several examples provide further fodder, but if you just read the first few chapters, it can help significantly to remind you, that if you lead any people or help shape any decisions, how critical your role is in the impact on those people's lives.
<h4>NUDGE, IMPROVING DECISIONS OVER LIFE AND HEALTH:</h4>
EXCELLENT PRIMER FOR FIRST TIMERS ON BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS.  IT EXPLAINS IN PLAIN PROSE HOW WE CAN BE INFLUENCED BY OUR ENVIRONMENT TO DO THINGS WITHOUT THOUGHT.
<h4>A bit wordy, but that is its only fault:</h4>
As has been demonstrated numerous times, and reported in numerous books, humans are not rational decision makers.  Therefore, why not take advantage of human tendencies to help people make better choices for themselves and for society?  "Nudge" is a little wordy, but that is really its only fault.  I certainly don't mind being reminded of the various controlled experiments on decision making conducted by psychologists,  the humor is good, and I enjoyed the authors' personal experiences.  Perhaps more important, the authors are careful in finding and assembling evidence for their recommendations.

Sometimes it is a matter of choosing the proper default to overcome inertia: so organ donation becomes the default rather than the opposite.  If this bothers you, then there should be no default: to renew your license you would have to make a choice.  Other times it is a matter of eliminating misconceptions: teens tend to overestimate the frequency of teen drinking and smoking, and conformity is a powerful influence.  If you inform people about average energy use, and how they compare, they will tend to move toward the average, so the under users actually start using more; just using emoticons with the information (smiley face for the under users) eliminates the negative effects of providing the information and accentuates the positive.  Routines are important reminders, so birth control pills for days 20-28 are placebos, but people remember they need to take a pill every day.

The government must take a better role in requiring useful information (such as nutrition labels); Thaler/Sunstein carry this idea farther in suggesting that more standardized/computer readable information be provided, for example on drug plans or mortgage terms: not because this will help the typical consumer directly, but because 3rd party providers could then develop software for the consumer.]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Do&#8217;s and don&#8217;ts for (future) marketeers: Dealing with a changing media landscape</title>
		<link>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/15/dos-and-donts-for-future-marketeers-dealing-with-a-changing-media-landscape/</link>
		<comments>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/15/dos-and-donts-for-future-marketeers-dealing-with-a-changing-media-landscape/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>joachim@freedomlab.org</dc:creator>
		
	<dc:subject>Wzzup</dc:subject><dc:subject>consumer</dc:subject><dc:subject>future</dc:subject><dc:subject>internet</dc:subject><dc:subject>media</dc:subject><dc:subject>network</dc:subject><dc:subject>people</dc:subject><dc:subject>power</dc:subject><dc:subject>product</dc:subject><dc:subject>social</dc:subject><dc:subject>world</dc:subject>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://santiago.freedomlab.org/2008/12/11/dos-and-donts-for-future-marketeers-dealing-with-a-changing-media-landscape/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/amazon_iphone.jpg" class="template_image" title="Amzone's new iPhone app" rel="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/amazon_iphone.jpg"><img src="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/amazon_iphone.thumbnail.jpg" id="image24152" alt="Amzone's new iPhone app" align="left" height="96" width="113" /></a>So the media landscape is changing and is rapidly movig into the digital sphere. With it the way that companies and brands are using these media for their marketing activities is also subject to change. Traditional strategies and approaches will most likely be less and less effective, in some cases maybe even counter productive, while new methods possibly will show to offer great opportunities and growth possibilities. So what are the do's and don'ts for (future) marketeers? Some thoughts and examples...]]></description>
					<content:encoded><![CDATA[The new media are empowering the voice of individuals. Suddenly my opinion has the potential to be heard by every single person on this planet with an Internet connection. Will they all read it? Probably not, but infrastructures like social networks, search engines, hyper links and all others so typically for the Internet have the power to increase the likeliness for my opinion to reach an audience of substantial growth. This development of empowerment of the people and its consequential cultural changes has triggered smart people to come up with ideas how to take profit of it instead of seeing it as a threat when you are a brand manager or a product manager of a certain company. One of those ideas is <a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/#navigation=post%3D20467" target="_blank">crowdsourcing</a>.

Traditionally brand managers feel the need to protect the brand identity they have been building with so much energy and accurateness. To make it appear simple: if a brand uses blue, you don't want people suddenly using red in relation to this brand. In more complex sense: if has a specific standpoint when it comes down to environmental and social questions you don't want somebody else in the name of that brand make political statements. You want controle! But will that strategy be worth anything in the future? Guess not, because you simply can't remain your control anymore in a world where everybody can make a website about its favorite brand overnight, or within the time of half an hour with the help of MySpace.

In an intersting <a href="http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.san&s=96379&Nid=50201&p=988164" target="_blank">article </a>about these conventional brand managers and their strategies to tear down every website that is deducated to their brand it becomes very clear that the right strategy is not to fight these people that want to make a statement about your brand. Why, anyway, should you? Fan based website on MySpace offer great opportunities to gain and maintain engagement of consumers with your brands. Instead of fighting them you should support them. Obviously not by taking control out of their hands, because that's the reason why people create such websites. They want to be part of the brand and have their own little piece of control over it. Now allow them and support them. Give them special links to your own website where you sell stuff and they will be most likely to publish them. Especially if you acknowledge their special status by giving special offers for their members.

Maybe even more shocking to this traditional brand manager is the outcome of a recent Forrester Research report on consumer confidence, as sketched out in <a href="http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.san&s=96382&Nid=50201&p=988164" target="_blank">this article</a>. The researchs points out that consumers have very little trust (the least) in company blogs compared to other sources of information, where an "<span class="articleText">Email from people that you know" is rated the highest. I wonder though why this article still tries to sum up all sort of strategies that companies can follow to have their own blog well appreciated by consumers. Don't they get it? It's of no use! You can simply have people doing it for free! Just let them.</span>

Off course, maybe this is a bit over the edge and not every traditional marketing strategy will fail tomorow, but I'm pretty sure that things will only accelerate. So what's the plan? Are there any plans to deal with new media and technologies? <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/dec2008/tc2008128_586651.htm?chan=technology_technology+index+page_top+stories" target="_blank">According to Amazon there are</a>. They have recently launched a new app for the iPhone that enables you to send a photo, that you have just made in a shop, of a product you want to buy and they will reply you with the lowest possible prices and the possibility to instantly order it. An important factor in the process of this new product is crowdsourcing. The photo you send to Amazon is send into a network of people sitting at home in their pyjama's, as some have sceptically typified them, that match your product with a product in the Amazon databas and earn 10 cents for every match.

In my opinion this company has again found a great way to deal with new opportunities that new technologies and media offer you. The trick is: don't be afraid an focus on the threats, but celebrate and be open to new ideas. Amazon might not be the sexy brand so many want to be, but I say they are the smartest boy in the class and it's about time other companies should look for other role models than image.]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Redefinition of media: what&#8217;s the storytelling revolution?</title>
		<link>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/11/redefinition-of-media-whats-the-storytelling-revolution/</link>
		<comments>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/11/redefinition-of-media-whats-the-storytelling-revolution/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jorgen@freedomlab.org</dc:creator>
		
	<dc:subject>Wzzup</dc:subject><dc:subject>change</dc:subject><dc:subject>consumers</dc:subject><dc:subject>content</dc:subject><dc:subject>experience</dc:subject><dc:subject>future</dc:subject><dc:subject>market</dc:subject><dc:subject>media</dc:subject><dc:subject>people</dc:subject><dc:subject>story</dc:subject><dc:subject>tech</dc:subject>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://santiago.freedomlab.org/2008/12/09/24133/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/star-wars-hologram.jpg" class="template_image" rel="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/star-wars-hologram.jpg"><img src="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/star-wars-hologram.thumbnail.jpg" id="image24135" title="Hologram" align="left" /></a>This week, Sarah McBride of the Wallstreet Journal published<a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/search/page/3_0466.html?KEYWORDS=mcbride&#38;mod=DNH_S" title="WSJ article" target="_blank"> an article on the future of the way we'll watch movies</a>. Although there are quite a few remarkable new technological advancements to be expected in the coming years, the article proves yet again, that the industry is still caught in a tech fetish kind of mode. Picture quality gets better, screens get bigger, access content anytime, anyplace, but what does that do for me...the movie fan? That question is left unanswered. Nice example of 'enhancing the traditional process' but not 'innovating on the new definition of media'... <font size="1">(video included)</font>]]></description>
					<content:encoded><![CDATA[<strong>Nice features, but how does it change the story?</strong>
I've made a similar argument before: why the focus on features and not on the possible benefits? It's interesting that as we might be entering a new media paradigm in a couple of years time, most innovation still takes place on the enhancement of the current and increased efficiencies in the experiences of people. Are we movie fans really looking for that? Or, as a new generation enters the market place, should we rather focus on that new media mentality?

That new media mentality brings about a completely new way of what media is. With consumers that are much more media savvy, and are much more aware of how media is being made, innovation has to take place in that realm as well. Indeed as an extension of those technological advances that McBride talks about in her article. To raise a few questions: what if 3D cinema will actually mean that you experience a different kind of story from every seat in the cinema, because you can or can't see certain things? What it that hologram actually interacts with you (or the audience) as they react to the story on the screen? What does it mean when I can see a film on my iPhone and get it just as easily on a TV set, where it simply continues: does the wider screen reveal more picture with story elements that I would have missed on my iPhone? And what is storytelling all together in a new paradigm of integral media?

<strong>Wall Street Journal reports</strong>
Watch this nice video that came along with<a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/search/page/3_0466.html?KEYWORDS=mcbride&#38;mod=DNH_S" title="WSJ Article" target="_blank"> the article</a>:
<img id="p24137" class="movie" longdesc="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/wsj-future-cinema.mp4" alt="The Way We'll Watch - WSJ Video" align="left" />]]></content:encoded>
					<wfw:commentRss>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/11/redefinition-of-media-whats-the-storytelling-revolution/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
<enclosure url="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/wsj-future-cinema.mp4" length="19859838" type="video/mp4" />
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		<title>Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics</title>
		<link>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/11/blindside-how-to-anticipate-forcing-events-and-wild-cards-in-global-politics/</link>
		<comments>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/11/blindside-how-to-anticipate-forcing-events-and-wild-cards-in-global-politics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rob@freedomlab.org</dc:creator>
		
	<dc:subject>Book of the week</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject>Not on home</dc:subject><dc:subject>business</dc:subject><dc:subject>customer</dc:subject><dc:subject>economic</dc:subject><dc:subject>future</dc:subject><dc:subject>global</dc:subject><dc:subject>history</dc:subject><dc:subject>low</dc:subject><dc:subject>oil</dc:subject><dc:subject>personal</dc:subject><dc:subject>war</dc:subject>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://santiago.freedomlab.org/2008/12/11/blindside-how-to-anticipate-forcing-events-and-wild-cards-in-global-politics/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/51DGabKTuiL.jpg" class="template_image" rel="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/51DGabKTuiL.jpg"><img src="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/51DGabKTuiL.thumbnail.jpg" id="image24146" class="book_image" title="Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics" align="left" /></a><small>Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics
by Francis Fukuyama</small>
<small>1 customers reviewed this article averaging 4.0</small>
<small>
<strong>Isbn-13:</strong> 9780815729907 </small>

A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises--such as the sudden end of the cold war--have caught governments and societies unprepared in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined, our lives. We have every reason to expect more surprises in future.     Certain kinds of unanticipated scenarios--particularly those of low probability and high impact--have the potential to escalate...]]></description>
					<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Blindside-Anticipate-Forcing-Events-Politics/dp/0815729901%3FSubscriptionId%3D0BN9NFMF20HGM4ND8RG2%26tag%3Droblog-21%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D0815729901" target="_blank">See this book in Amazon</a>

A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises--such as the sudden end of the cold war--have caught governments and societies unprepared in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined, our lives. We have every reason to expect more surprises in future.

Certain kinds of unanticipated scenarios--particularly those of low probability and high impact--have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can pose major policy challenges. Contemporary policymakers, however, lack the understanding and the tools they need to manage low-probability, high-impact events. Refining our understanding and developing such tools are the twin foci of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by <em>The American Interest</em> magazine.

Organized into five sections, <em>Blindside</em> addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for negative low-probability events and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. Case studies pinpoint the failures--institutional as well as personal--that allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and other chapters examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. The book's final section offers a debate and two discussions with internationally prominent authorities who assess how individuals, communities, and local and national governments have handled low-probability, high-impact contingencies. They suggest what these entities can do to move forward in a period of heightened concern about both man-made and natural disasters.

How can we avoid being blindsided by unforeseen events? There is no easy or obvious answer. But we first must understand the obstacles that prevent us from seeing the future clearly and then from acting appropriately. This readable and fascinating book is an important step in that direction.
<h3>Customer Reviews</h3>
<h4>Playing with wild cards:</h4>
"Prediction is very hard," Yogi Berra supposedly remarked, "especially about the future." It's hard to argue with that, but even skeptics must admit that such events as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the East Asian economic crisis of the late 1990s or the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 came as a shock even to most experts. Yet, for all its difficulty, forecasting matters. No one, whether in government or business, wants to be blindsided by oil shocks, declining stocks, environmental crises, global pandemics, natural disasters or any of the other nasty surprises that chance sometimes delivers. Can anything be done, or must humanity merely watch the wheel of fortune spin, hoping for the best? According to this modest book, something can be done. Even when specific predictions are hard, if not impossible, leaders can "plan for surprise" by developing scenarios, boning up on history, overcoming cognitive biases and learning to think about the types of significant disruptions that could arise. While this uneven collection of articles is understandably short on conclusions, getAbstract predicts it will help you think about the unthinkable.]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Sun &#38; MySQL</title>
		<link>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/09/sun-mysql/</link>
		<comments>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/09/sun-mysql/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jurg@freedomlab.org</dc:creator>
		
	<dc:subject>Wzzup</dc:subject><dc:subject>bottom</dc:subject><dc:subject>change</dc:subject><dc:subject>class</dc:subject><dc:subject>community</dc:subject><dc:subject>companies</dc:subject><dc:subject>company</dc:subject><dc:subject>home</dc:subject><dc:subject>logo</dc:subject><dc:subject>news</dc:subject><dc:subject>traditional</dc:subject>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://santiago.freedomlab.org/2008/12/09/sun-mysql/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.mysql.com/news-and-events/sun-to-acquire-mysql.html"><img src="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/bannerlogo.png" id="image24132" alt="Sun, MySQL, OpenOffice" align="left" height="85" width="128" />Sun acquiring MySQL</a> is old news, I know, but writing about <a href="http://www.openoffice.org/">OpenOffice</a> I was genuinely surprised at the logo in the bottom left corner of the OpenOffice site. This logo appears to be two logos, but it is really one. The two logos shown are both Sun and MySQL. Like <a href="http://www.exxonmobil.com/">Exxon Mobil</a>, or closer to home <a href="http://www.abnamro.nl/">ABN Amro</a>, it suggests a merger. But I am not aware of a rebranding of the resulting company. I have searched quite intensively for reasons behind this 'move', but having found nothing of significance I can only speculate...]]></description>
					<content:encoded><![CDATA[APPEASING THE 'OPEN SOURCE COMMUNITY'
OpenOffice is one of the most prominent Open Source projects of this moment. But MySQL is still of a different class. By associating OpenOffice with Sun might hope to appease the open source community. But what they hope to gain with this is totally unclear to me.

INTRODUCING AN OPEN SOURCE DIVISION
With the acquisition of MySQL Sun bought a company of 400 employees for $1 billion. MySQL AB has offices worldwide and is considered very healthy. Perhaps the Open Source Division will be called Sun MySQL, or something similar, or just MySQL. And perhaps they are aiming for floating this division in due time.

ADDING PROFESSIONAL SERVICES TO OPEN PRODUCTIVITY APPS
MySQL AB is a services organization spanning the globe. Many organizations are already changing from the traditional pick (Microsoft) to alternatives like OpenOffice. Perhaps the services organization MySQL is being positioned to add credibility and fallback to corporations still shy with a change this drastic. MySQL has done it before, they helped companies use MySQL database in favor of others. Perhaps they are going to do it again, but now with open producvity tools.]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The four deficits of America</title>
		<link>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/08/the-four-deficits-of-america/</link>
		<comments>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/08/the-four-deficits-of-america/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>joachim@freedomlab.org</dc:creator>
		
	<dc:subject>Wzzup</dc:subject><dc:subject>build</dc:subject><dc:subject>citizens</dc:subject><dc:subject>film</dc:subject><dc:subject>financial</dc:subject><dc:subject>future</dc:subject><dc:subject>government</dc:subject><dc:subject>message</dc:subject><dc:subject>shock</dc:subject><dc:subject>tour</dc:subject><dc:subject>usa</dc:subject>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://santiago.freedomlab.org/2008/11/25/the-four-deficits-of-america/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/iousa.jpg" class="template_image" title="I.O.U.S.A." rel="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/iousa.jpg"><img src="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/iousa.thumbnail.jpg" id="image24019" alt="I.O.U.S.A." align="left" height="37" width="128" /></a>I don't know what's more shocking, somebody telling you how the USA has build up an enormous debt or that message not being such a huge shock. I.O.U.S.A. is a film about the financial situation of the USA, the build up of an incredible debt through yearly repeating deficits, a failing government, the ignorance of its citizens and future prospects that look even worse. During the documentary, that I saw on the <a href="http://www.idfa.nl" target="_blank">IDFA</a>, we follow former U.S. Comptroller General <a href="http://www.gao.gov/cghome/dwbiog.html">David Walker</a> and <a href="http://www.concordcoalition.org/about-us/national-staff/robert-bixby" target="_blank">Bob Bixby</a> of the Concord Coalition on their Financial Wake Up Tour, who are informing the American citizens about the problems and trying to mobilize them to vote.

<font size="1">You can see a 30min version of the film <a href="http://www.iousathemovie.com/" target="_blank">here </a></font>]]></description>
					<content:encoded><![CDATA[I.O.U.S.A. is said to be  to the US economy what "An inconvenient truth" was to the environment. I guess it could have the same sort of alarming effect, but the most clear resemblance I recon is the opening grafic that shows the relation between the national deficit and the GDP throughout the Americn history. The grafic shows that the current situation (67%) is not unique in history, but what it does show, and I immediatly see Al Gore climbing up that ladder, is the unique situation in which it is created and the potential growth it is subject to. Historical dept peaks where related to economic crises and war, but the build up of the current situation was done during a period of economic prosperity and relative peace in the 80's.

The film explains the deficit of the USA to be a fourfold problem. The four elements or different forms of deficit are deficit on budget, deficit in savings, deficit in trade (balance of payment) and a deficit in leadership.

<strong>DEFICIT ON BUDGET
</strong> The calculation is simple. If you spend say five dollars on things like healthcare, education, military etc. and you receive four dollars through taxes, you have a deficit on your budget of one dollar. That money obviously needs to be borrowed somewhere and thus you create a debt. The several tax cuts during the last years and the increased spendings of the US government have resulted in a growing deficit on the budget that is adding up to its debt each year.

<strong>DEFICIT IN SAFINGS
</strong> During times of economic prosperity you don't want to spend all your money, but instead you might want to save up some money for a rainy day. But what if you have never seen a rainy day? What if the monetary institute is executing all kinds of policies (like low interest rates) that encourage you to spend your money? What if instead of making saving profitable it becomes really easy to get a credit? What if it becomes normal to buy stuff you cannot afford? America has a credit cancer and it is spreading fast. We see the problem now with the credit crunch and there are simply now savings available to meet the financial challenges. People are living on forecast income, based on assumptions that turn out to be false. Now they not only don't have any money to pay back their debts, but there is also no money available to invest, say in the education of their children.

<strong>DEFICIT IN TRADE
</strong> What does balance of payment imply? You work, produce, sell and thus earn money. With that money you buy other things you couldn't produce yourself. In a sound situation your level of production is either in balance or is exceeding your level of production. In other words: if you spend more than you earn, your capital is decreasing. Or yet in other words: if you import more than you export, on the long run you are in trouble. And this is the situation in the USA. The country has been buying alot more from other countries than it sold to them, in fact it had the biggest trade shortage world wide in 2007. Part of the buying is, because of a shortage of budget, financed with loans on property. Obviously this is a warning situation which basically comes down to shipping money to foreign countries, getting loans on your houses and other properties, while you are eating ton loads of hamburgers.At one point you have to stop eating and start working to pay, not only for your own need, but as well to pay back your debts.

The great problem with all these deficits and the enourmous debt it is causing is that the debt is mostly owned to foreign countries. In the past the American government turned to its citizens to finance deficits, but more and more after the second world war the deficits were funded by foreign investments and loans. It may be clear that having huge debts with other countries is first of all weakening your international position and secondly it decreases your internal capability to deal with those depts.

<strong>DEFICIT IN LEADERSHIP
</strong>The biggest challange for America now (at least when the docu was finshed, before the election of Barack Obama) is to seek for a leader that has the courage to deal with the problems of the country. Over the last years Bush has been executing policy that was defastating for his country. Several tax cuts, an expensive war in Iraq, expensive medicare programs, an ever lowering interest rate, irresponsible mortgage policies... With Bush at the head of the US government the country has completely turned around the situation under Clinton and saw its debt growing to ridiculous proportions. The even bigger problem is proberbly the heritage he is leaving to the USA of tomorrow. Three programs that are to be executed: social care, medicad and medicare are promising to make the debt rate grow up to more than 200%. His policy was based on short term interests and his reelection in 2004 might be one of the biggest tragedies in American history.

<strong>DEALING WITH THE PAIN
</strong>The film itself is mainly aiming at the analysis of the problems and does not give really constructural advizes on future policies. Afterwards, during the Q&A, David Walker pointed out that he is expecting the current financial crises to create a momentum for a paradigmental shift, both among policy makers and consumers. He stated that it will be impossible for Obama to immediatly deal with the deficit problem at the first day when he will be in office. The currenteconomic crises will only make the debt grow bigger and bigger. What he does need to do is already formulate policy that will transform the deficit in a surplus when the economy is doing better.]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Hulu will kill YouTube in 18 months!</title>
		<link>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/04/hulu-will-kill-youtube-in-18-months-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/04/hulu-will-kill-youtube-in-18-months-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jorgen@freedomlab.org</dc:creator>
		
	<dc:subject>Wzzup</dc:subject><dc:subject>advertising</dc:subject><dc:subject>experience</dc:subject><dc:subject>global</dc:subject><dc:subject>low</dc:subject><dc:subject>media</dc:subject><dc:subject>network</dc:subject><dc:subject>people</dc:subject><dc:subject>personal</dc:subject><dc:subject>social</dc:subject><dc:subject>world</dc:subject>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://santiago.freedomlab.org/2008/11/30/24093/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/74ab11da-b415-11dd-8e35-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1" title="FT article: registration required" target="_blank"></a><a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/afbeelding-16.png" class="template_image" title="Hulu.com" rel="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/afbeelding-16.png"><img src="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/afbeelding-16.thumbnail.png" id="image24094" alt="Hulu.com" align="left" height="86" width="128" /></a>The Financial Times has recently suggested that the publicly launched video website <a href="http://www.hulu.com/" title="Hulu homepage" target="_blank">Hulu</a> in March of this year, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hulu" title="Hulu Wikipedia entry" target="_blank">joint venture</a> between NBC Universal and News Corp, might overtake the popular YouTube next year in regards to advertising revenues. This year Hulu, the site that only shows professional TV shows and movies, will make some $70 million in ad revenue whereas <a href="http://www.youtube.com" title="YouTube homepage" target="_blank">YouTube</a> will make $100 million that same year. But, as YouTube is attracting a worldwide audience of 83 million viewers each month, Hulu only attracts 6 million in the US. Recipe for success?]]></description>
					<content:encoded><![CDATA[<strong>The Hulu experience</strong>
From my personal trials with Hulu (<a href="http://www.ideas2o.com/web/watch-your-favorite-tv-shows-on-hulu-outside-usa-for-free" title="How To access Hulu from outside US" target="_blank">with some tweaking, accessible in this part of the world as well</a>), I must say, that they are succeeding in bringing a great experience. The list of shows provided contains such hits as Prison Break and Heroes, oldies like Miami Vice and quite some recent movies as well. The content is ad supported, but I am more than willing to wait a couple of minutes for my show to start in high quality full screen stream and not be bothered with downloading it somewhere, which is the case when you want to do it illegally or when you purchase something in the iTunes Store. It simply saves a lot of hassle, and that is a great feat to have these days.

<strong>The platform vs the destination</strong>
As we've been thinking of the new role for media organizations in the years to come, we've stated that it won't be so much the destination or the place but rather the ability of facilitating a platform between consumers and content or consumers and advertisers that will matter most. I think there's a very important subtle aspect in that premise. I didn't say that for media organizations it was about facilitating a platform between users and other users. There are many examples of that around that succeed in that in the best possible way. However, for a sustainable business model facilitating that connection, a user-user connection might not be as important as connection between users and content and advertisers (note: although Hulu does have you create profiles and allows you to interact with others, the social angle is still limited)

Case in point: YouTube. Although they are quite good in connecting people via mostly low-end content, they haven't really been able to monetize their social value, yet. It remains to be seen which advertisers are willing to connect their brands to the kind of low-end and illegal content that is primarily available on the 1.65 billion dollar platform. In the short term, my guess would be that such willingness will remain low: although a new media mentaility is brewing, we're not there yet. The same is true for most other social platforms that are available. As we've said before, the coming years will all be about HOW you create value, as opposed to WHAT you do. So, the coming years, these business models will have to proof their validity, for the platforms to stay afloat.

Hulu, instead, is creating a platform as well. But unlike YouTube, they are succeeding in connecting high quality content with users and advertisers. Especially in the coming years, advertisers will look for sure bets and connecting your brand to this kind of quality is much more secure than the other route. Combined with the ease of use and the great quality of picture, I would say, that Hulu indeed will be able to beat YouTube at its game in the coming 18 months, as was suggest by the <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/74ab11da-b415-11dd-8e35-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1" title="FT article: registration required" target="_blank">FT article</a> as well.
<strong>
Long lasting effects</strong>
The big question is of course, whether the effects will be long lasting. I have grown more convinced these days of <a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/#navigation=post%3D24086" title="Long Tail counter argument">the holes in the argument of the Long Tail theory.</a> As such, I do think there's much to say for the big hits attracting even bigger audiences and those 'gems' in the tail, actually not picking up at all, because of a peer-2-peer or network effect. Even though, in both arguments the illegal downloading aspect is forgotten, I think that Hulu might actually succeed in people not wanting or needing to get their content illegally any more.

But. There's always a but isn't there? In this case it is the rights management issue all over again. The content of Hulu is restricted for access from the US alone. As I've already stated, there are ways around that easily. And as people will discover this 'gem' of the legal content streams, that issue will grow bigger. It simply can't be stopped or managed in this way. So, for Hulu to have a long lasting effect, and reach global appeal, their are still many burdens to overcome. Because, if not, the Hulu success might come to an abrupt halt before the year is over.]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Kuhn: Philosopher of Scientific Revolutions (Key Contemporary Thinkers)</title>
		<link>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/04/kuhn-philosopher-of-scientific-revolutions-key-contemporary-thinkers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.freedomlab.org/2008/12/04/kuhn-philosopher-of-scientific-revolutions-key-contemporary-thinkers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>rob@freedomlab.org</dc:creator>
		
	<dc:subject>Book of the week</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject>Not on home</dc:subject><dc:subject>book</dc:subject><dc:subject>history</dc:subject><dc:subject>interest</dc:subject><dc:subject>management</dc:subject><dc:subject>modern</dc:subject><dc:subject>read</dc:subject><dc:subject>revolution</dc:subject><dc:subject>science</dc:subject><dc:subject>social</dc:subject><dc:subject>structure</dc:subject>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://santiago.freedomlab.org/2008/12/04/kuhn-philosopher-of-scientific-revolutions-key-contemporary-thinkers/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/41DZD9P900L.jpg" class="template_image" rel="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/41DZD9P900L.jpg"><img src="http://santiago.freedomlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/41DZD9P900L.thumbnail.jpg" id="image24119" class="book_image" title="Kuhn: Philosopher of Scientific Revolutions (Key Contemporary Thinkers)" align="left" /></a><small>Kuhn: Philosopher of Scientific Revolutions (Key Contemporary Thinkers)
by Wes Sharrock</small>
<small>
<strong>Isbn-13:</strong> 9780745619286 </small>

Thomas Kuhn's shadow hangs over almost every field of intellectual inquiry. His book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions has become a modern classic. His influence on philosophy, social science, historiography, feminism, theology, and (of course) the natural sciences themselves is unparalleled. His epoch-making concepts of 'new paradigm' and 'scientific revolution' make him probably the most influential scholar of the twentieth century.             Sharrock and Read take the reader through Kuhn's...]]></description>
					<content:encoded><![CDATA[<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Kuhn-Philosopher-Scientific-Revolutions-Contemporary/dp/0745619282%3FSubscriptionId%3D0BN9NFMF20HGM4ND8RG2%26tag%3Droblog-21%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D0745619282" target="_blank">See this book in Amazon</a>

Thomas Kuhn's shadow hangs over almost every field of intellectual inquiry. His book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions has become a modern classic. His influence on philosophy, social science, historiography, feminism, theology, and (of course) the natural sciences themselves is unparalleled. His epoch-making concepts of 'new paradigm' and 'scientific revolution' make him probably the most influential scholar of the twentieth century.

Sharrock and Read take the reader through Kuhn's work in a careful and accessible way, emphasizing Kuhn's detailed studies of the history of science, which often assist the understanding of his more abstract philosophical work. These historical studies provide vital insight into what Kuhn was actually trying to achieve in his The Structure of Scientific Revolutions: an endeavour far less extreme than either his 'foes' or his 'fans' claim. In the book's second half, Sharrock and Read provide excellent explications, defences and, where appropriate, criticisms of Kuhn's central concept of 'incommensurability', and tackle head on the crucial issue of whether Kuhn's insights concerning the natural sciences can be extrapolated to other disciplines, such as the social sciences.

This is the first comprehensive introduction to the work of Kuhn and it will be of particular interest to students and scholars in philosophy, theory of science, management science and anthropology.]]></content:encoded>
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